China Nuclear: Rapid increase in nuclear weapons in China; China likely to accumulate around 1,500 nuclear weapons by 2035

China is witnessing a rapid surge in its nuclear weapons stockpile, raising alarms across the global security community. According to recent intelligence reports, China is on track to amass approximately 1,500 nuclear warheads by the year 2035, sparking concerns not only in the United States, but also in Russia and India.

The U.S. Department of Defense has submitted a detailed assessment suggesting that China has significantly accelerated its nuclear weapons production. As per Beijing’s revised strategic policy, China has been increasing its arsenal by around 100 nuclear warheads each year since 2023. This aggressive expansion places China firmly on a trajectory to dramatically alter the global nuclear balance in the coming decades.

SIPRI's Warning and Strategic Shifts

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has predicted that China may soon begin maintaining its nuclear weapons in launch-ready positions, a major shift from its earlier policy. While even a future total of 1,500 warheads remains less than the estimated 4,000 to 6,000 warheads held by Russia and the United States, SIPRI cautions that this growth will intensify strategic competition between the three nuclear powers.

Further adding to the complexity of the global nuclear landscape, Israel’s unofficial nuclear policy—if formalized—could push other countries, including China, to increase their arsenals further. SIPRI also noted that India, responding to the regional threat environment, has enhanced its preparedness in 2024, including strategic reserves and capabilities that may eventually allow multiple warhead deployment from a single missile. Meanwhile, Pakistan has also been expanding its nuclear capabilities, adding to regional instability.

China’s Doubling Arsenal and the Global Race

SIPRI’s data indicates that China has doubled its nuclear stockpile in just two years, significantly enhancing its nuclear capability and positioning itself as a formidable challenge to global stability. The Pentagon’s findings echo this sentiment, highlighting that China's growing nuclear strength is not only a deterrent but also a means to assert global influence.

The rapid accumulation of nuclear weapons worldwide has re-ignited a dangerous arms race, with profound consequences for global peace and humanity itself. According to SIPRI’s latest estimates, there are around 12,512 nuclear weapons currently in existence across the globe. As this number continues to rise, concerns mount that the planet is once again edging toward a critical tipping point.

Implications for India

India, in light of China’s assertive posture and Pakistan’s nuclear advances, now faces a strategic imperative to remain vigilant and strengthen its deterrent capabilities. The evolving dynamics underscore the urgent need for renewed international dialogue on nuclear arms control, disarmament, and regional stability.