Union Budget 2026 : Will gold and silver become cheaper or more expensive? It will be revealed in the finance minister's budget

Union Budget 2026 is just a few days away, and the country's attention is focused on the budget to be presented on February 1, 2026. Everyone from ordinary citizens to the business world has expectations from this budget. However, this year, special attention is on the prices of gold and silver. Due to global economic instability in recent months, geopolitical tensions, and the recent ETF crash, the question of whether gold will become cheaper or more expensive after the budget has become a topic of discussion in the bullion market.

India is one of the largest importers of gold in the world. Since a significant portion of the country's gold needs depends on imports, any change in import duty directly affects domestic gold and silver prices. If the government decides to increase the import duty, gold and silver are likely to become more expensive in the Indian market. Conversely, a reduction in duty could provide relief in prices.

Against this backdrop, jeweler organizations in the bullion market have strongly demanded the government to reduce import duties. According to jewelers, the current import duty on gold is high, leading to reduced official imports and encouraging smuggling. It is estimated that if the import duty on gold and silver is reduced in the budget, there could be an immediate drop in prices by 2,000 to 4,000 rupees per 10 grams. Another advantage of the duty reduction is that the import of gold through official channels will increase, bringing transparency to the market and stabilizing prices in the long term. Therefore, consumers, investors, and jewelers, all three groups, could benefit from it.

Meanwhile, global developments are also proving important for gold prices. Since the beginning of 2026, some positive changes have been observed in international politics. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated a softer stance on tariff policies and agreements with NATO countries, which has strengthened the American dollar. Generally, when the dollar strengthens, there is pressure on gold prices in the international market.

If the dollar index maintains its strength during the budget period, the likelihood of gold prices rising significantly on a global scale is low. As a result, gold is unlikely to become significantly more expensive in the Indian market as well, according to market experts. Overall, the future direction of gold and silver prices will depend on the government's decision regarding import duties in the Union Budget 2026. Therefore, the eyes of consumers, investors, and the bullion market are now directly on Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's budget announcements.